In recent times, Pakistan has been contending with an unusual environmental predicament, a winter devoid of its typical rainfall and snowfall. This departure from the norm raises concerns about the broader implications for the country’s climate and ecosystems. The absence of winter precipitation in Pakistan can be attributed to a variety of factors, including changes in global climate patterns, local atmospheric conditions, and environmental shifts. Thick fog has enveloped central, north-eastern, and much of the eastern parts of Pakistan, causing a drop in daytime temperatures. The sun had been absent for several days initially but has managed to make a brief appearance in the afternoons recently, providing some relief. The persistent lack of sunshine, combined with high humidity, creates a sensation as if the temperature has plummeted to zero, even in the Indus plains, though the actual temperature is not as low. Thus, it becomes increasingly crucial to address the broader issues of climate change for a sustainable and resilient future.
What is the Impact?
While global warming and climate change have already led to a noticeable decline in regional rainfall, this winter season exacerbates the situation by impacting the following sectors of the country.
Ecosystems and Agriculture
In South Asia, the expected climate changes could lead to a 12% decrease in rainfed maize yield and a 14% decrease in irrigated maize yield by 2050 (Nepal et al., 2024). Pakistan, a developing country heavily reliant on agriculture, where the agricultural sector contributes 22% to the national economy, is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate extremes due to its limited capacity for adaptation. In December and January, the country experienced a 92% and 80% reduction in rainfall, respectively, compared to the same period last year (Baluch et al., 2024). The lack of winter rain and snow has far-reaching consequences for the country’s diverse ecosystems and agricultural practices. Winter precipitation is crucial for replenishing water sources, sustaining plant life, and ensuring agricultural productivity. The absence of these vital elements poses challenges for both urban and rural areas, impacting water availability and crop yields. Snow is crucial for farming in the valleys of the Upper Indus basin. Many water springs, which have flowed for centuries, are drying up due to the lack of fresh snowfall. The absence of snow throughout the winter has led to a critical situation, depleting glaciers. This rapid melting of glaciers also poses the risk of floods. With little to no snow, there is less water available, resulting in reduced fishing and farming, as well as potential power shortages.
Tourism Industry
Hotels and streets that usually bustle with tourists visiting the picturesque valleys in Pakistan during winter remain surprisingly quiet this season. Normally blanketed by snow, popular tourist destinations present a barren and brown appearance due to the delayed arrival of the first snowfall in the country’s northern and northwestern regions. This winter, as a result, witnesses a significant decline in tourist numbers – a 60% to 70% drop (Latif, 2024). Even with discounted rates, a majority of hotel rooms remain unoccupied, reflecting the stark contrast from the bustling season witnessed the previous year. The situation is mirrored in Malam Jabba, home to Pakistan’s largest ski resort and the hub of winter sports festivals. Hotels stand vacant, and locals in the main bazaar find themselves idle, awaiting the crucial lifeline for their economy – snowfall.
Economy
The unusual absence of snowfall is causing notable concerns, signifying more than just a challenge for tourism. This situation has the potential to lead to disastrous impacts on the region’s economy and environment. For instance, with a decrease in tourist numbers due to the scarcity of snowfall, the tourism sector, contributing 7% to the region’s GDP, faces a significant setback (The Express Tribune, 2024). Moreover, the inadequate snowfall is unable to sufficiently replenish groundwater, posing a significant threat to both farming and water supply systems. Environmentalists have consistently warned about the imminent threat of severe water scarcity due to the escalating global warming phenomenon, especially in regions highly impacted by rapid climate change, such as Pakistan, which ranks among the top 10 affected countries (Dawn, 2024). The Himalayan and Karakoram glaciers, vital water sources for Pakistan’s rivers, are rapidly diminishing due to increasing temperatures. The absence of snowfall during winter could exacerbate the situation, impacting the flow in interconnected river systems. This poses a looming crisis as snowmelt plays a pivotal role in providing water to these regions. The reduced river flows, particularly in the Jhelum and Chenab rivers of the Indus Basin system allocated to Pakistan under a World Bank-brokered water-sharing treaty with India, could intensify tensions and adversely affect agriculture in significant areas of Punjab and Sindh, further emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change.
Policy Recommendations
Promote water conservation, upgrade irrigation, and encourage crop diversification for sustainable agriculture.
Establish monitoring and conservation measures for glaciers, focusing on flood preparedness.
Diversify tourist offerings, promote off-season tourism, and invest in resilient tourism infrastructure.
Engage local communities, provide training, and diversify skills for year-round tourism benefits.
Diversify the economy into technology, manufacturing, and services, investing in renewable energy.
Implement groundwater replenishment initiatives alongside climate-resilient infrastructure projects.
Engage in international collaborations for collective climate action, implementing policies for sustainability.
Launch public awareness campaigns and educational programs for climate change mitigation.
Foster community-based adaptation strategies involving local communities in decision-making processes.
Conclusion
The absence of winter precipitation in Pakistan serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for global and local efforts to address climate change. It prompts us to reconsider our relationship with the environment and underscores the importance of sustainable practices in the face of evolving weather patterns. As Pakistan navigates this environmental quandary, the journey towards climate resilience and a greener future becomes all the more critical.
References
Baluch, S., Khan, A., & Qazi, M. (2024, January 23). Snowless winter depriving northern Pakistan of economic lifeline. Daily Balochistan Express, Quetta. Retrieved January 29, 2024, from https://www.bexpress.com.pk/2024/01/snowless-winter-depriving-northern-pakistan-of-economic-lifeline
Dawn. (2024, January 22). The coming disaster – Newspaper – DAWN.COM. Dawn. Retrieved January 29, 2024, from https://www.dawn.com/news/1807708
The Express Tribune. (2024, January 24). Snowless winter. The Express Tribune. Retrieved January 29, 2024, from https://tribune.com.pk/letter/2255425/snowless-winter
Latif, A. (2024, January 23). Snowless winter depriving northern Pakistan of economic lifeline. Anadolu Ajansı. Retrieved January 29, 2024, from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/snowless-winter-depriving-northern-pakistan-of-economic-lifeline/3116120
Nepal, M., Ashfaq, M., Sharma, B. R., Shrestha, M. S., & Khadgi, V. R. (2024, January 10). Impact of weather and climate advisories on agricultural outcomes in Pakistan. Scientific Reports. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-51066-4
This article is written by Haneen Gul. Haneen is a research analyst at the Iqbal Institute of Policy Studies (IIPS).
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