Food crisis occurs due to scarcity of food at the local, national and global levels. It is caused by various reasons such as natural disasters, crop failure, government incompetent policies, war and population explosion. Food crises result in starvation, hunger, malnutrition and deterioration of health.
Pakistan is considered one of the countries which have a fast-approaching food security crisis. It ranks at 92nd place out of 116 countries on the Global Hunger Index (GHI, 2022). World Food Programme (WFP) has estimated that approximately 43% of people are suffering from food insecurity and of these 18% are acutely affected. The incidence of food insecurity is double in rural areas, three in every five households is food insecure (Khan, 2022).
Food insecurity has an appalling impact on the health and nutritional need of children. It is reported that 82% of children under five are suffering from acute malnutrition and 40% from stunted growth. WFP has found that the affordability of a balanced diet is the major constraint in achieving a nutritious diet, as the majority of households are unable to afford it due to high food inflation.
Apart from inflation, there are several other reasons for food insecurity such as demand and supply gap, fluctuating exchange rates, floods, poor policies and war. It can be tackled by increasing food production and the government’s proactive role and effective policies.
Climate Change and Food Security
Pakistan is already facing a severe economic crisis with a high level of inflation, poverty and limited access to basic necessities. However, climate change and food insecurity are aggravating the problems for the government.
Pakistan is in the top ten most affected countries by climate change despite being one of the lowest carbon dioxide emitters. In the last few years, there is a frequent occurrence of extreme weather events due to climate change which include floods, drought and heat waves.
Asian Development Bank has conducted a study and found that there will sharp decrease in food and cash crops (i.e., sugarcane, wheat, rice, maize, and cotton) in the next few years due to climate change and high cultivation costs. This event, directly and indirectly, has impacted the economy as the agriculture sector is contributing 23% of the GDP.
Consequences of Climate Change
Loss of rural livelihoods and income
Loss of marine and coastal ecosystems
Loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, and livelihoods
Food insecurity and breakdown of food systems (crop damage)
Drivers of Food Insecurity
There are several reasons for the increase in food crises:
Supply and Demand Gap
Wheat is an important determinant in measuring food security and it is one of the primary sources of fibre in the national diet. Pakistan roughly requires 30.8 million tons of wheat crop every year and in 2022 there is a shortfall of two million tons due to an increase in fertilizer cost. To bridge the supply and demand gap, the government has to import wheat from the international market (Mahmood, 2022). This increases the vulnerabilities of the countries where 40% of the population is already facing chronic food insecurity (WFP, 2021).
Unstable International Market
The uncertain geopolitical situation has increased the wheat price. For instance, Pakistan was importing 39% of the wheat from Ukraine. The war between Russia and Ukraine has distorted wheat imports not only in Pakistan but around the world. Hence, wheat price in the international market has increased up to 60% (RSIL, 2022).
Fluctuating Exchange Rate
To meet the domestic food demand after floods, the government has to import fruits, vegetables etc from different countries. This will increase the burden on the country’s scarce foreign reserves. The government is providing various subsidies to the agricultural sector which will escalate government expenditure and leads to fiscal and current account deficit (Mahmood, 2022).
Increase in Inflation
Food security will not solely be addressed by the sufficient supply of food. There are other factors that are indirectly affecting food security one of them is inflation. In August, Pakistan’s Consumer Price inflation reached 27.9% and it is limiting the purchasing power of the population. The increase in fuel price has decreased agricultural productivity due to an increase in the cost of energy, transportation and fuel. Furthermore, the increase in the cost of equipment such as tractors is making it difficult for the farmer to afford it (Ashraf, 2022).
Flash Floods
Recent floods in Pakistan have affected the supply chain of food and worsened the food security dilemma. It was reported that floods have affected 3.6 million acres and due to the standstill water of flood 45% of the agricultural land has been spoiled. Moreover, 3 million livestock have been annihilated. The loss of crops and livestock will cause a serious effect on the supply of food items in the coming months (Khan, 2022).
National Food Security Policy
The first food security policy was introduced in 2018. The purpose of the policy is to increase food accessibility, availability and sustainability by making the production of the agriculture sector more productive, resilient, profitable and competitive. The Government of Pakistan has developed numerous policies to address climate change and food insecurity but these are not implemented due lack of financial resources at the provincial level and coordination among the governmental departments (WFP, 2021).
Short Term Reforms
Stabilize the Market
To make food available, accessible and affordable, the government has to stabilize the market by reducing commodity prices. Moreover, hoarding and speculative behaviour should be prohibited and avoid unnecessary trade restrictions.
Encourage Local Production
The production of food can be increased by providing incentives to small farmers to cultivate more crops and encouraging them to diversify their production i.e., mix method.
Diversification and Reduce Food Loss
The government should launch awareness campaigns for consuming a balanced diet. The authorities must diversify sources of food and reduce food loss and wastage.
Accessibility of Inputs
The accessibility and affordability of agricultural inputs are essential for small farmers. It will increase the quantity and quality of the products.
Minimised the Role of Government
To control food inflation government has reduced its role in setting up the commodity price after granting subsidies as it is increasing the inflation in the country. PIDE has suggested that market forces can assess the demand and supply of the commodities and adjust it accordingly.
Long Term Reforms
Climate Smart Agriculture
Government has to invest to improve farm practices and make them more sustainable and resilient. However, climate-smart agriculture practices include efficient water management, high-yielding crops, reduce water losses, and the construction of small and medium dams to increase water storage capacity and boost agriculture output (Malik, 2022).
Social Protection
The reinforcement of social protection programs will support vulnerable communities to slide into poverty and malnutrition. For instance, to protect children from malnutrition, a school meal program can be introduced and government must initiate more cash transfer schemes to boost the purchasing power of poor households.
Protecting Farms from Floods
The government has to engage the private sector to induce agricultural insurance in case of natural disaster and build flood control infrastructure such as embankments (to hold water), spurs (to protect from erosion), introduce a flood warning and forecasting system through the installation of rain gauges, and construct hydro-meteorological stations
Disaster Management
Government should make a plan to mitigate the impact of natural disasters to protect the people from vulnerability. There is a dire need of introducing an Artificial Intelligence Policy to forecast the future climate risk and by using the data government can make a plan to combat it.
Research and Development
Government should invest in more Research and Development areas and scaling up the nascent science and application of biofertilizers, less dependent on fossil fuels than synthetic fertilizers, would increase sustainable options for farmers. Moreover, it is important to include innovation and technology in the agriculture sector (Pangestu, 2022).
Policies
Considering the current situation, there’s a substantial need for a transformation in Pakistan’s climate change adaptation policies and food system.
Conclusion
Food insecurity and malnutrition affect the health of the people. It arises due to a shortage of food with the increase in inflation, demand and supply gap, fluctuating exchange rate, floods, poor policies and war. Recent flooding has worsened the food security conditions due to the massive loss of agricultural lands and crops. The government can mitigate the food crisis by implementing short-term and long-term reforms such as stabilising the market, encouraging local farmers, subsidising inputs, reducing government role, climate-smart agriculture, social protection and research and development.
References
Ashraf, T. (2022, July). Retrieved from Dawn News: https://www.dawn.com/news/1700649
Khan, K. (2022). Post-flood food crisis. Retrieved from Dawn.
Mahmood, A. (2022). Retrieved from Dawn News: https://www.dawn.com/news/1691226
Malik, S. (2022). Climate Change and Food Insecurity in Pakistan. Retrieved from https://southasianvoices.org/climate-change-and-food-insecurity-in-pakistan/
Pangestu, M. (2022). Four paths to respond to the food price crisis. Retrieved from https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/four-paths-respond-food-price-crisis
RSIL. (2022). Retrieved from Research Society of International Law: https://rsilpak.org/2022/the-war-in-ukraine-and-the-potential-impact-on-pakistans-trade/
WFP. (2021). WFP Critical Corporate Initiative: Climate Response Analysis Pakistan. World Food Programme.
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